Eternal War and a Nuclear Arms Race

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Darrell Castle talks about the withdrawal of Russia from the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start), Mr. Putin’s annual speech to the Russian Parliament, President Biden’s trip to Poland and Ukraine, and China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI) Concept Paper.

Transcription / Notes

ETERNAL WAR AND A NUCLEAR ARMS RACE

Hello, this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. This is Friday the 24^th day of February in the year of our Lord 2023. I will be talking about the withdrawal of Russia from the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start), as well as Mr. Putin’s annual speech to the Russian Parliament, President Biden’s trip to Poland and Ukraine, and finally China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI) Concept Paper.

President Biden reportedly left Washington in secret at 4:15 am on Sunday morning, flying to Poland where he made a speech and then he took a 10 hour train ride to Kiev Ukraine. The secrecy of the trip and itinerary was certainly understandable given the security issues with a U.S. president today. I’m pretty sure the secret service had quite a difficult time in advance work for this trip.

He chose to deliver a speech in Poland where he expressed pride in the accomplishment of building a coalition from the Atlantic to the Pacific to oppose Russia. He missed his words a little bit, but he was trying to say that NATO, the U.S., and Japan were all in on their determination to stop Putin’s brutal war of aggression. He almost always uses that rhetoric even though reportedly in a phone conversation with Putin in January as well as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in a meeting with Secretary of State Blinken, the Russians appealed to the U.S. to stop the inflammatory rhetoric to give diplomacy a chance to work.

One might conclude from the continuation of that language that American diplomats do not want a negotiated peace at this time, but nevertheless the President went on to Kiev as scheduled. He met Ukrainian President Zelensky, and they walked together bravely through the streets while air raid sirens screamed for the American media. The problem with the air raid sirens was that it seems as if they were staged for the TV audience because National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters that Russia had been informed of the President’s intent and his itinerary before the visit.

CNN’s Alex Marquardt reported that he had been in Kiev for five days and heard no explosions and no sirens. They started right when Biden started his stroll with Zelensky, but the two brave presidents did not scramble to the shelters and did not even get off the street. Warning the Russians in advance was understandable so that no attack would be forthcoming during the visit, but it has become a kind of tradition with our military now.

General Milley, said he assured the Chinese that he would warn them in advance of an American attack because his commander in chief was supposedly crazy. When told that Chinese balloons were floating over America during the Trump administration, Trump said that’s the first I’ve heard of it and the Joint Chiefs said yes, we decided not to tell him because he was too aggressive. So, the Biden team notified the Russians that he was going there even though they understandably  kept it secret from others.

I don’t mean to make light of any of this since this war is deadly serious and raging on without end. When asked how long, the president responds, “as long as it takes.” Congress should perhaps exercise its responsibility and duty to inquire exactly how long is as long as it takes. Is the American taxpayer, suffering from inflation at home, supposed to fund this war to bleed Russia dry forever? By the way comparably speaking Europe pays very little in this struggle, which I suppose is another tradition, but it seems that escalation and the possibility of nuclear conflict grow day by day.

So, the president went to Kiev approximately one year after the Russian invasion and he gave the people a speech. “One year later, Kiev stands. And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands.”
 Putin miscalculated he told us. “Russia’s aim was to wipe Ukraine off the map, and Putin’s war of conquest is failing. Russia’s military has lost half the territory it once occupied.” However, he said nothing about Keystone Pipelines as far as I know.

The war rages on, and the deaths of soldiers and civilians on both sides rages on. The war is causing a drain on American taxpayers and American munition stockpiles as well, so I find showing up to celebrate all that a little strange to me, especially with so many suffering in America. Not visiting Ohio before his trip abroad was a bad look and members of Congress on both sides noticed. Many politicians and celebrities entering Ukraine these days apparently see their visit as political tourism, but one expects more from the president. The entire photo-op thing seems a little inappropriate.

This trifecta continued on Tuesday the 21^st as Vladimir Putin delivered his annual speech to the Russian Parliament which is the equivalent of the State of the Union Speech in America. He emphasized the importance of Ukraine to Russia: “I would like to emphasize once again that Ukraine is not just a neighboring country for us. It is an integral part of our own history, culture and spiritual space. It is our friends, our relatives, not only colleagues, friends, and former work colleagues, but also our relatives and close family members.” Here are some other significant words from Mr. Putin’s speech in which he reminds the Russian people about what he believes America has become:

“And here, they lie constantly. They pervert historical facts and attack our culture constantly; the Russian Orthodox Church and other religious organizations in our country. See what they do with their own peoples; the destruction of the family, cultural and national identity. Perversion, mockery of children and pedophilia are declared the norm. The norm of their life. And priests are forced to bless same sex marriages. God be with them. Let them do what they want. “It’s harder when they are right isn’t it.

He continued to address the Russian people and to tell them why he took the actions he took in Ukraine. To do that he decided to go into the history of the place. He explained that modern Ukraine was created entirely by Russia, more precisely, by Bolshevik communist Russia. That was all just background to get the people listening to understand the important part of the speech. In 2010 Washington and Moscow signed what became known as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty which was intended to limit and reduce nuclear arms on either side, setting a limit of no more than 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 missiles.

In March 2021 the two sides renewed the treaty for five years, and it was not supposed to expire until February 2026 if not continued. Non-continuation of the treaty may have been a foregone conclusion given how U.S. Russia relations have deteriorated since the Ukraine War. The original Start treaty began in 1991 and the new treaty was signed in 2010 under Obama and Medvedev as a successor treaty. Putin prepped the people for the news that he had suspended Russian participation in START 2, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty with the United States and he would keep Russian strategic forces on alert as well as modernize nuclear forces.

Decades of work to reduce tension and danger down the drain. I could take this all the way back to John Kennedy and explain the decades of hard work to reduce tension and danger if I had time. The U.S. had already pulled out of many other treaties including the Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile Treaty which limited what missiles could be placed within short range of Russia. The accusations had been flying back and forth on the new treaty with Washington accusing Moscow of violating the treaty by refusing to allow inspections on Russian territory.

Putin warned the West that if it provides Ukraine with long-range weapons systems, Russia will be forced to push back the threat even farther from its borders. The suspension of the treaty indicates to me that Putin recognizes the West’s total effort in Ukraine and he is going to continue developing and modernizing his greatest deterrent. In other words, it means another nuclear arms race when the U.S. is some 32 trillion in debt and the defense budget at almost 1 trillion.

On the other side of the world the Chinese had to get their two cents in during this February of war and threats. The Chinese issued a Global Security Initiative (GSI) which called on the world’s nations to resolve disputes through dialogue and to reject power politics. The Chinese Foreign Minister spoke in Beijing on the same day as Putin’s speech and he told the forum that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. He said the GSI fully elaborated ideas and principles which support that idea. Yesterday the Chinese called for a negotiated settlement and a ceasefire.

China has responsibilities as well as a firm determination to safeguard world peace and the paper lists 20 major cooperation directions. Without taking the time to list all 20, I will at least give you some of them. China supports a UN-centered security governance structure and supports UN efforts to prevent war and to lead in post-war reconstruction. He called for a stop of hegemony and bullying and to build a peaceful coexistence, with stable and balanced relations between major countries.

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi recently visited Moscow and the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Chinese leader Xi Jinping is preparing to visit for a summit with Putin in the coming months. China and Russia undoubtably want to discuss Russia’s role in what Putin portrays as his country waging war against a U.S. global order. China indicates from the GSI that it wants in on the plan and wants to play a more active role in ending the conflict. I suppose Mr. Jinping has concluded that the war with all its accompanying sanctions is no longer good for business.

Over the last few weeks the U.S. has repeatedly warned China against providing Russia with any lethal weapons or military assistance of any kind. Xi is going to Moscow anyway, I presume to solidify his partnership with Putin which is what all this diplomatic shuttling and posturing between the three countries is all about. The GSI says that the China-Russia partnership is positive for the world, but according to its polls more than 72% of respondents see the U.S. as the biggest obstacle to a Ukraine peace process.

In conclusion, this is about who runs the world and who matters in the world.  As someone once said, Russia is just a gas station with nuclear weapons, but Europe recently found out that the gas station is pretty important. The U.S. and its NATO partners collectively referred to as The West seem to want a unipolar world with the U.S. running it and they are willing to go to extraordinary measures to achieve that.  China, with its economy serving as the manufacturing center of the world, is a player and it demands to be considered. In short China and Russia with India as a possible third player will try to rise up to Western levels or else bring the West to their levels unless the U.S. is willing to consider them and negotiate with them.

Finally, Folks, why can’t we all just get along? Egos and dreams of world domination have existed and been fought over since the dawn of man’s time on earth. The problem now is nuclear weapons. They do not make us safer, instead they make us less safe.

At least that’s the way I see it,

Until next time folks,

This is Darrell Castle,

Thanks for listening.