Threat Assessment
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Darrell Castle discusses the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community just issued and signed off on by the office of the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard.
Transcription / Notes
THREAT ASSESSMENT
Hello, this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. This is Good Friday on the 18th day of April 2025. I will be talking about the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community just issued and signed off on by the office of the Director of National Intelligence who at this moment is Tulsi Gabbard. This report gives the assessment of threats the U.S. faces from each country in the world where a threat is perceived to exist and is the combined assessment of the 17 intelligence agencies that are under the authority of the national director.
This report, which is published annually, is hot off the presses, but I don’t recommend that you read all 33 pages as I have unless you have a high tolerance for being terrified. Yes, once you have read this report you will wonder how the people who deal with this information every day manage to sleep at night. I will take this opportunity to share the highlights of the threat assessment as determined by U.S, Intelligence with you so you don’t have to read it and risk being terrorized.
The forward to the report introduces us to what is about to be presented. Terrorist and transnational criminal organizations, and I suppose that means drug cartels and their national supporters directly threaten our citizens and are directly responsible for more than 55,000 U.S. deaths from synthetic opioids in the last year, a 33% increase over the previous year.. It is amazing to me just how destructive the scourge of drugs has been to America. Those who are addicted seem to have an uncontrollable desire for the drug which enslaves them. I suppose the drugs at first, promise a good time or relief from bad times, but deliver, instead, misery and death.
I certainly believe that the U.S. government should consider as threats the nations enabling the cartels who do it for money and power. It’s a difficult problem indeed, for the cartels, thanks mostly to China, apparently control virtually all of Mexico and have made significant inroads into the governments of the various border states especially Arizona.
“Western Hemisphere based TCOs and terrorists involved in illicit drug production and trafficking bound for the United States endanger the health and safety of millions of Americans, contribute to regional instability.” Well, that’s a no brainer isn’t it so I wonder why no one in the government takes the time to explain to Mr. and Ms. Average American exactly what is happening and why such action against the cartels is necessary to save our lives. It is apparently profit for India, but for China they do it at cost because it’s a weapon to weaken and destroy the U.S. Mexico and its politicians are apparently so intimidated and terrified by the cartels and their multi billions in monetary assets that they do the cartels bidding.
In case you had any doubts about whether or not international terrorist groups are still active and still intent on doing harm not only to the U.S. Government but citizens as well you can now remove any doubt. “ISIS most aggressive branches, including ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), and its entrepreneurial plotters will continue to seek to attack the West, including the United States, via online outreach and propaganda aimed at directing, enabling, or inspiring attacks, and could exploit vulnerable travel routes.”
Well, that’s encouraging isn’t it to know that ISIS seeks to exploit your travel routes. The Report tells us that the New Year’s Day attacker in New Orleans was influenced by ISIS propaganda, as well as the Afghan national who was arrested in October for planning an election day attack in the name of ISIS. The intent of the attacks was to demonstrate to us and the world that ISIS could attack inside the US at any time. There are other international criminal groups outlined in the Report but for time’s sake we move on to threats that involve entire nations.
When the report speaks of China it uses the abbreviation PRC for the Peoples Republic of China. The PRC maneuvers constantly for ways to shape its power and influence in the world and for ways to gain advantage over the West, particularly the U.S. It uses its military to project power over Taiwan as well as the various claims it asserts in the East and South China Seas. Have you ever wondered when there are infrastructure problems in the U.S. why so many things seem so dysfunctional. China just might be behind it because cyber-crime and cyber terrorism are two to China’s greatest weapons and this report makes it clear that all that potential damage is just sitting there, pre-positioned, and waiting to be used in any conflict with the U.S.
The bottom line for China as outlined in this report is this; “China presents the most comprehensive and robust military threat to U.S. national security.” China is using complex, whole-of-government campaigns featuring coercive military, economic, and influence operations short of war to assert its positions and strength against others, reserving their more destructive tools for full-scale conflict. So, China uses its influence buying, its bribery of U.S. officials, its fentanyl production, its cyber-attacks, its spying inside the U.S., its theft of intellectual property, its theft of actual property, its ownership of vast amounts of U.S. farmland and its control of the manufacture of life saving medication as a kind of soft power to gradually weaken the U.S. so that it is less and less capable over time.
“The PRC remains the most active and persistent cyber threat to U.S. government, private-sector, and critical infrastructure networks. The PRC’s campaign to preposition access on critical infrastructure for attacks during crises or conflict tracked publicly as Volt Typhoon…demonstrates the growing breadth and depth of the PRC’s capabilities to compromise U.S. infrastructure.” The report goes on to say that recent telecommunications compromises are PRC attacks. I could go on all day with more and more threats from China but there are others to talk about.
Russia views its ongoing war in Ukraine as a proxy conflict with the West and because it so views the conflict it carries increased risks of unintended escalation. “Regardless of how and when the war in Ukraine ends, Russia’s current geopolitical, economic, military, and domestic political trends underscore its resilience and enduring potential threat to U.S. power, presence, and global interests.” Despite enormous costs incurred in the war Russia has proven to be very adaptable and resilient.
That is in part at least, because of the expanded backing of China, Iran, and North Korea. President Putin appears to be resolved and determined to pay a very high price to prevail. It seems to me then, that U.S. actions have driven Russia into the hands of China with its surrogates Iran and North Korea as well as enabling Russia and Putin to become stronger rather than weaker. Even the sanctions have forced Russia to form and expand the BRICS economic alliance as a way of working around the sanctions. More and more nations are joining therefore more and more nations want to help Russia avoid the sanctions.
Russia has suffered substantial ground losses in the war without losing any strategic capability. In other words, the campaign to weaken Russia has been a complete failure and completely counterproductive. The war has afforded Moscow a wealth of lessons regarding combat against Western weapons and intelligence in large-scale war. More than likely that information and experience will involve challenges in future conflicts including other adversaries with whom Moscow shares the information. Once again the U.S. actions have made its enemies stronger and will probably involve future unnecessary casualties. The word that keeps coming to mind regarding U.S. policy is self-destructive and especially stupid unless U.S. planners want to make the world less safe.
Finally, for Russia, it has the largest and most diverse nuclear weapons stockpile that, along with its deployed ground, air, and sea-based delivery systems, could inflict catastrophic damage to the Homeland. In other words, nuclear conflict with Russia would most likely mean planetary annihilation and should be avoided at almost all costs. Flirting with nuclear war shows a very dangerous mind and is hard for any rational person to see as anything but insane. Once again I could go on all day with this Report’s assessment of Russia but there are other threats to consider.
In my view this is the most important paragraph in this entire Report and it renders current U.S. policy a little hard to understand. “We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so.” Did you get that folks, because when I read this it really mystified me. U.S. intelligence, the best that we have, says in writing, that it assesses that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. In light of that statement how can the U.S. threaten Iran with “something really bad.” Why move strategic bombers with their 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs within striking distance because “Iran cannot be allowed to build nuclear weapons” if your own best intelligence assessment is that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.
In conclusion, my own thoughts apart from this assessment is that the U.S. is in essence demanding that Iran demilitarize and I don’t see that happening. Iran is a theocracy but so is Israel and therein lies the rub. I see nothing good coming from the U. S. being involved in a religious war on the other side of the world and the last thing the U.S. needs to lose right now is an aircraft carrier.
Finally, folks, the assessment tells us that our struggles with Iran have made its allies China, Russia, and North Korea, harder to deal with and collectively they are much more powerful than any of them alone. In other words, according to U.S. Intelligence, as usual, U.S. involvement has made the situation much worse.
At least that’s the way I see it,
Until next time folks,
This is Darrell Castle,
Thanks for listening.
